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Post by thesportscritic on Dec 31, 2005 16:10:29 GMT -5
At least we made up for the tough loss to UF.
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fsn32
Full Member
www.FlamesSports.com
Posts: 122
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Post by fsn32 on Dec 31, 2005 23:02:18 GMT -5
(PREFACE: The RPI is still not a solid indicator yet... its close, but it really takes a couple games in January to get a true sample)
We can't get an at-large with our current RPI (70)... and since the average RPI of the conference is around 175, even if we win out we probably wouldn't get to the Top 50 which with the Women's T-ney has been an absolute necessity to get in At-Large. If we lose a couple games we will probably be at around 70-75, which is about ten spots below what we were at before the T-ney last year. So assuming that, we would fall around a 14 seed depending on how many low teams win conference tournaments. If we win out we may move up to around 60 which would be back in the 13 seed range.
I'm guessing the Big Souths RPI will go down once conference play begins... right now it is at 16 out of 31. But some of that is because Coastal is in the Top 100, which is a joke. They are 3-2 vs D1 and after the first of January will have played 4 non-D1 games. Their wins are against 254, 226, and 212 and they were blown out by #3 UNC and #107 UNC-Wilmington. So their RPI is an aberration right now. High Point hasn't played anyone and Asheville is OK, but the three top 50 teams they played, drilled them.
We will see how it pans out... the conference will definitely be up a little at the end of the season from year's past but I doubt enough to get an At-Large. We needed to at least get one win against a Top 30 program.
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Post by thesportscritic on Jan 1, 2006 0:37:25 GMT -5
I agree with you fsn32 about Coastal Carolina. Their RPI up I think because of playing UNC but they got smashed. UNCA is decent but they have not played anybody as well as High Point. I hope we handle our business in the league this season. LU has potential but time will tell on what they do from here on out. At least the team (LU) most of the time are not playing like they are young. Got to develop those killer instincts and we will be fine in my opinion.
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Post by SCAR on Jan 1, 2006 11:36:49 GMT -5
Sportscritic I have to disagree with you a little about the High Point game. The fact is that in college basketball or sports in general played at a certain level, things can happen and the ball doesn't bounce your way. I saw the HPU game and I didn't think our girls played that badly, or didn't show up. I think they played hard, and were in a dog fight that they happened to lose. On any given night that can happen and you have to give HPU the credit for playing a complete game and not just in stretches. The fact is we are taking for granted that our girls will just win all of their conference games even though it is EXTREMELY difficult to do.
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Post by ATrain on Jan 1, 2006 14:31:43 GMT -5
I agree with SCAR...it will be difficult to win every game from here on out...and I predict tough challenges from both UNCA and HPU. But I think if for some reason we fail to win the conference tourney, we'll probably get a spot in the WNIT.
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Post by thesportscritic on Jan 1, 2006 17:18:47 GMT -5
If thatis your definition of not playing that badly against High Point then fine. If you want to call melting down against pressure playing not badly then that is you. We played like crap in that game and I have the tape of that game still. The bottom line is that they (High Point) showed up and we didn't. And to Atrain and SCAR, I will believe it when I see it. We are the favorites in this league unless somebody proves they can beat us in the tournament and nobody has proven that yet.
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Post by thesportscritic on Jan 1, 2006 17:22:42 GMT -5
Bottom line, lets put the ball up and find out what is going to happen. Nice discussion lets keep it going.
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Post by Stevev on Jan 1, 2006 18:44:44 GMT -5
I can't believe that the Big South is rated 16th out of 31 conferences in women's hoops. That has got to be a mistake of some sort.
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Post by ATrain on Jan 1, 2006 21:15:07 GMT -5
Not really...our scrub teams are better than the other conferences' scrub teams
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Post by SCAR on Jan 2, 2006 0:19:39 GMT -5
Women's basketball is top heavy. There are about 15 really extraordinary teams then there is a big drop off. Sportscritic, speaking of tapes, I didn't have time to catch up with you to get a copy of the Men's game vs Buffalo but I am back in town now so I will catch up this week....Back to the Ladies. My only point is that we still live in the physical world and our team is not invincible and we shouldn't be disappointed or say they played badly if they lose a game or 2 or 10 in conference. I don't think they will lose that many if any but I don't want that to be taken for granted. Anytime anybody does that it should be thought of as special and not just a foregone conclusion. To give you an example in the NFL Philly won every division game last year and this season they lost every one. (That hurt me and PAMedic to use that as an anology).
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Post by thesportscritic on Jan 2, 2006 8:39:06 GMT -5
I feel your point. We did prove that we were invincible against High Point. I think we did somewhat took them for granted last year. On your Eagles your team lost because of TO and the injury to Mcnabb. They just didn't recover from those losses. I so far don't think we have taken any game for granted thus far. Hopefully we will handle our business in the league and get back to the NCAA's. On that tape, call me so we can get together and I will give you that tape. But about the league, I am not still going to worry about it until proven otherwise.
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Post by thesportscritic on Jan 2, 2006 8:45:00 GMT -5
One more thing, we have lost to 4 teams thus far who have a combined total of 4 losses. Those programs are still in the top 30 in the RPI and those teams are getting top 25 votes well at least 3 of them are. And we played with 3 of those 4 teams quite close and had the lead and didn't put them away or have the killer instincts. The rest of our wins thus far are against teams who's RPI is below 100. SMU was a good win too.
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Post by SCAR on Jan 2, 2006 10:28:56 GMT -5
I agree that SMU was a real good win. I think this team is where it needs to be and I really do expect them to play well and win a lot of games in conference as they should because they are the most talented team in the league I would say. Good discussion though and I can't wait to see them play on Tuesday...13 years ago you couldn't pay me to watch women's college basketball unless it was a top 10 team playing another top 10 team. That sport has come a long way and I really actually like watching the games.
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Post by thesportscritic on Jan 2, 2006 17:20:12 GMT -5
That long ago they were quite bad. I wasn't here in Virginia but living in Georgia. But I have definitely heard some stories about this team 13 years ago.
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